Author Topic: Am report on our East Coast from Gonubie to Kei (Read 342905 times)

Kent · « **Reply #460 on:** March 11, 2019, 12:41:45 PM »

..Quote..."A typical desk globe is designed to be a geometric sphere and to rotate smoothly when you spin it. Our actual planet is far less perfect -- in both shape and in rotation.Earth is not a perfect sphere. When it rotates on its spin axis -- an imaginary line that passes through the North and South Poles -- it drifts and wobbles. These spin-axis movements are scientifically referred to as "polar motion." Measurements for the 20th century show that the spin axis drifted about 4 inches (10 centimeters) per year. Over the course of a century, that becomes more than 11 yards (10 meters).Using observational and model-based data spanning the entire 20th century, NASA scientists have for the first time identified three broadly-categorized processes responsible for this drift -- contemporary mass loss primarily in Greenland, glacial rebound, and mantle convection."The traditional explanation is that one process, glacial rebound, is responsible for this motion of Earth's spin axis. But recently, many researchers have speculated that other processes could have potentially large effects on it as well," said first author Surendra Adhikari of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. "We assembled models for a suite of processes that are thought to be important for driving the motion of the spin axis. We identified not one but three sets of processes that are crucial -- and melting of the global cryosphere (especially Greenland) over the course of the 20th century is one of them."In general, the redistribution of mass on and within Earth -- like changes to land, ice sheets, oceans and mantle flow -- affects the planet's rotation. As temperatures increased throughout the 20th century, Greenland's ice mass decreased. In fact, a total of about 7,500 gigatons -- the weight of more than 20 million Empire State Buildings -- of Greenland's ice melted into the ocean during this time period. This makes Greenland one of the top contributors of mass being transferred to the oceans, causing sea level to rise and, consequently, a drift in Earth's spin axis.While ice melt is occurring in other places (like Antarctica), Greenland's location makes it a more significant contributor to polar motion."There is a geometrical effect that if you have a mass that is 45 degrees from the North Pole -- which Greenland is -- or from the South Pole (like Patagonian glaciers), it will have a bigger impact on shifting Earth's spin axis than a mass that is right near the Pole," said coauthor Eric Ivins, also of JPL.Previous studies identified glacial rebound as the key contributor to long-term polar motion. And what is glacial rebound? During the last ice age, heavy glaciers depressed Earth's surface much like a mattress depresses when you sit on it. As that ice melts, or is removed, the land slowly rises back to its original position. In the new study, which relied heavily on a statistical analysis of such rebound, scientists figured out that glacial rebound is likely to be responsible for only about a third of the polar drift in the 20th century.The authors argue that mantle convection makes up the final third. Mantle convection is responsible for the movement of tectonic plates on Earth's surface. It is basically the circulation of material in the mantle caused by heat from Earth's core. Ivins describes it as similar to a pot of soup placed on the stove. As the pot, or mantle, heats, the pieces of the soup begin to rise and fall, essentially forming a vertical circulation pattern -- just like the rocks moving through Earth's mantle.With these three broad contributors identified, scientists can distinguish mass changes and polar motion caused by long-term Earth processes over which we have little control from those caused by climate change. They now know that if Greenland's ice loss accelerates, polar motion likely will, too.The paper in Earth and Planetary Science Letters is titled “What drives 20th century polar motion?” Besides JPL, coauthor institutions include the German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam; the University of Oslo, Norway; Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby; the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark; and the University of Bremen, Germany.An interactive simulation of how multiple processes contribute to the wobbles in Earth's spin axis is available at:

Kent · « **Reply #461 on:** March 11, 2019, 12:43:02 PM »

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2805/scientists-id-three-causes-of-earths-spin-axis-drift/

Visenvryheid · « **Reply #462 on:** March 11, 2019, 12:56:54 PM »

Interesting reading! Thanks kenty..
http://www.weathersa.co.za/observations/synoptic-charts
Also regarding weather prediction, if you can read the synoptic, doing it yourself is much more accurate IMO. Then with windguru and YR.no and others like it you can get it pretty spot on most of the time.. but to predict 10 days in advance is quite a guess at the future these days with the best tech, or in the past..You'll only be right if the weather is naturally stable which SA is not known for being. Sure in the tropics you can guess accurately what the weather will do long in advance and be spot on most of the time but sometimes you will be way out, the nature of the game. 3 day predictions based on your own local knowledge and synoptics can be very accurate.

Kent · « **Reply #463 on:** March 11, 2019, 01:21:36 PM »

Jip..I believe in my ole school synoptic and my barometer...the two together are pretty accurate for at least 72 hours in advance....sometomes the sea swell can be a mystery to track

...and at best thats normally a day or two in advance...

Bamboes-Vis · « **Reply #464 on:** March 12, 2019, 10:50:24 AM »

Dear Kent, thanks a lot for this informative thread.
I'm just wondering.

Is is possible to get cold water and a high pressure at the same time?
I'm asking, because I'm trying to figure out that conditions Raggies like the most.

Thanks a lot

Kent · « **Reply #465 on:** March 12, 2019, 12:52:55 PM »

Only a pleasure...

Ok ..Bamboes...let me say this a high pressure normally brings an east wind...now we have the Agulhas current that runs from the east to the west and starts drifting into the deep somewhere near PE as it hist the cold Benguela current...under normal conditions...when the east puffs real hard then it assists the cold Benguela to hug the coast more and push the Aghulas off of its course and we get cold water inshore...this is the scenario for us here from East London to Durbs...NOW the Westerncape and further west is a different story...your main current is the cold benguela and then of cours the Mighty Atlantic.....getting toy your raggies ..here along our way when the east blows for a few days the raggie fisherman start licking their lips as that water turns chilly and very murky...and its almost a given that a raggie fest is underway....

colin · « **Reply #466 on:** March 12, 2019, 04:11:18 PM »

Kent

thanks for sharing .

Kent · « **Reply #467 on:** March 13, 2019, 12:27:28 PM »

Pleasure Colin....

Right Folks as I look into the midweek weather and conditions looming for this weekend , weve had a beastly eastly for nearly 3 days on the trot and our waters are brown to say the least and while the welcome rain is welcome our Gonubie , Kwelergha , Haga Haga and Kei rivers have come down...Sooo..thats a lot of freshish water into our shore line AND with this west from yesterday arvie and today , heres hoping it cleans things up a bit...

With this in mind I must give a tip and tomorrow Id say between 17h00 and 20h00 is a BRILLIANT solunar window...also with this west it should have cleaned things a bit and there is very light air as well as a good sized sea , no surge or sidewash...tide is good so I strongly suggest put a line in the water....

Bamboes-Vis · « **Reply #468 on:** March 14, 2019, 06:57:35 AM »

I went for a gooi last night at Cintsa.
Caught a couple of man-sized piles of seaweed.

......well.......at least they give a good fight.............

So what is the game plan if one encounter seaweed?
Can you predict if there will be seaweed?

Kent · « **Reply #469 on:** March 14, 2019, 10:25:23 AM »

..Well..I strongly suggest you gooi a line later this arvie...water is really looking good my side in Gonubie and I think the rest of the Jikeleza has cleaned up nicely...If you in that Cintsa area then I would go go gooi just to the right of that tidal pool infront of Cintsa West parking lot...

Kent · « **Reply #470 on:** March 15, 2019, 12:47:55 PM »

Good afternoon Folks , well I am a tad late with the weekends update BUT better late than never they say

...According to the solunar readout and moon transient , we are on two days of K@K fishing ...BUT...as I look at the water , wind predicted and what the barometer is doing ...it certainly dont look too bad to me...tides are also good with a low at 05h48 tomorrow and at 07h26 , it is the change over of tides and I know its always believed by the toppies of yesteryear that this change over is never a good time for fishing...BUT...I do take a one eyed look at the solunar and moon holding patterns BUT to me the water condition..tide and barometer speaks louder...AND..the water is a nice colour and the temp is around the 17 mark...no surge expected or sidewash and a inshore swell of between 2 to 4f running...

I would say that tomorrow early AM and Sunday early AM would be good times to go fish...many spots along our Jikeleza that fish well with these tides...

So Folks , there you have it ..I will be fishing bothe days and lets see how it turns out...

TIGHT LINES and JUST GO FISH!!!

Bamboes-Vis · « **Reply #471 on:** March 19, 2019, 08:29:52 AM »

Thanks Kent.
I would much appreciate it if you could give us your forecast for this coming long weekend (21 -24 March)
Which days look promising?

Kent · « **Reply #472 on:** March 19, 2019, 10:06:51 AM »

Well now..that you mention it Bamboes...I fished this past weekend in freezing water BUT the other conditions were spot on..lotsa small shad and tons of bait fish in the water...weve had two days west and I threw yesterday after work and water was much cleaner but still chilly...NOW..heres the kicker ...we have a low approaching BUT a high that is a bit stronger ...a BEEG west is predicted for Thursday and big swell that will be running in a westly direction ..so Im sure there will be a surge...BUT...as I look at it the window will be early Thursday BEFORE that west pumps and the swell gets too up...I would say from 04h00 to 10h00 AND its a good outgoing tide as well...

Sadly Saturday and Sunday will be blown out as that high ridges and that beastly eastly will come through gale...

Will Post a detailed update tomorrow as the next 24hrs unfold...

Kent · « **Reply #473 on:** March 20, 2019, 08:59:12 AM »

Mornings Folks...well you would be hard pressed NOT to fish early AM tomorrow as the conditions are REALLY looking good and the soluna activity numbers are off the chart...barometer is rising and a very steady rate ..this west wind weve got right now will warm things up...AND as I went past the sea this morning I saw birds diving 300 odd meters out ..Sooo...all things being equal our Jikeleza should be ON tomorrow....

You have a low tide at 10h18 and just be extra aware coz we are on a bright moon spring...swell is predicted to pick up and just be wary of any surge...

Glen Gariff and Bulugha point come to mind and should you be Cintsa wa give the Cintsa point a look BUT...just be careful there as that tide turns to the push...fisherman have been caught out there before and cutoff on the point...

Well Folks , make sure those hooks are sharp , keep to the bag limits and release the rest...

Kent · « **Reply #474 on:** March 22, 2019, 09:25:48 AM »

Well , mornings Folks , I really have nothing to report or forecast for this weekend as you have a BEEG east tomorrow and Sunday with a dropping barometer...only the die hards will be out in that gale giving it a go

...Coupled with that the swel running inshore is between 7 and 9 footy with a big surge as well....

So Folks IF you venture out PLEASE be careful and watch that water....

Bamboes-Vis · « **Reply #475 on:** March 27, 2019, 07:37:03 AM »

Once again thanks for all the updates Kent.

I went for a gooi at Cintsa on Sunday morning and caught this beauty.
Is it a smoothie or spotty?

Which of the inedibles prefer hotter water, and which ones colder water?

Kent · « **Reply #476 on:** March 27, 2019, 09:07:29 AM »

Quote from: Bamboes-Vis on March 27, 2019, 07:37:03 AM

Once again thanks for all the updates Kent.

I went for a gooi at Cintsa on Sunday morning and caught this beauty.
Is it a smoothie or spotty?

Which of the inedibles prefer hotter water, and which ones colder water?

NICE...well done..that looks like a sweetie/spotted gulley shark...

Well in that cold water you will get these alot...

Kob I find like it around 18 to 20 ...

REEFMAN · « **Reply #477 on:** March 28, 2019, 07:56:51 AM »

Nice catch Bamboes!!

REEFMAN · « **Reply #478 on:** March 28, 2019, 11:43:31 AM »

For interests sake, it's definitely a Smooth HoundShark - Mustelus mustelus

Check this thread out.... https://www.ultimateangling.co.za/index.php?topic=89.msg152#msg152

The Spotted Gully shark has serious teeth, whereas the Hound has more flat like pavement teeth/crushers.

Kent · « **Reply #479 on:** March 29, 2019, 09:22:23 AM »

Mornings East Coasters...bar the water temp and colour we actually have two good looking mornings in Sat and Sun as far as the wind goes....This west that has been puffing for the last 24hours should have cleaned and warmed things up a bit...last I checked the temp was sitting at 14...[/size]We have a high pressure sitting just off of our east coast and two cold fronts passing our southern tip and will just just give us a lick...this being said the barometer has been moving up n down like a jack in the box and sometimes this could be a good thing ...IF...the wind does not come through too strong...[/font]
Tides are very good withy early AM outgoing and you have a low tide at 06h47 tomorrow and on Sunday at 07h51...with the shad showing and making appearances , numerous Jikeleza spots come to mind...Cintsa point being one good spot...another would be Bulugha and Glen Gariff , also dont discount the two Glens ..Muir and Navaar..
We moning into a dark moon spring and the swell direction will be a southly with no surge or wash expected...should range between 2 to 6 foot on the inshore , with it picking up late Sunday...
Also note that tomorrow morning early it will be a slight bergy wind and you will have a flat smooth sea early on as that southly swell is head on....
Folks , it looks like we might have some decent conditions to fish in this weekend so get out there and put a line in the water..
Please remember to pick up the litter especially the plastics...thank you..
TIGHT LINES and JUST GO FISH!!